Hybrid, electric car sales 39.4% of CA market | John Lindt | business

California’s new light vehicle registrations fell by 1.7 percent YTD versus the year earlier, totaling 1,320,708 through September 2024, says the latest California New Car Dealers Auto Outlook.

The state is forecast to reach 1.75 million new vehicle registrations by year-end. Overall sales in 2023 reached 1.77 million, indicating a flat YOY prediction. Additionally, early 2025 estimates remain in the narrow range, with total projected sales to reach 1.79 million.

New vehicle registrations in the Golden State seem to be leveling off post-pandemic with a new yearly average benchmark. Three of the past four years have totaled approximately 1.76 million registrations, far less than the pre-pandemic years (2015-19), which hovered just above 2 million registrations.

Affordability remains a key issue holding back numbers, but lower interest rates, falling inflation, increasing employment, and rising incentives may help sales rise into 2025.

Tesla loses market share

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Tesla’s Model Y remains the top-selling car in California year-to-date, but the company’s sales continue to slip, losing 8.5 percent market share compared to last year.

This marks a full year of registration declines for Tesla in California, leaving the “alternative powertrain door” open for traditional automakers. Manufacturers and dealers have embraced this shift, expanding their share of battery electric vehicle (BEV) sales to 40.2 percent as consumers increasingly turn to exciting, new electric vehicle (EV) options.

Brands like Kia, BMW, and Hyundai have gained traction, increasing their year-to-date market shares by 1.4, 1.3, and 1.3 percent, respectively. Hyundai’s Ioniq 5 is now the third best-selling BEV in California.

Internal combustion engine vehicle sales down

YTD, BEVs currently comprise 22.2 percent of the State’s market share, showing a slight increase this year. When considering all alternative powertrains — plug-in hybrids (PHEVs), hybrids, and BEVs — these vehicles account for 39.4 percent of new sales in the first nine months of 2024, a significant increase from just 11.6 percent in 2018.

By contrast, last year ICE-powered vehicles (gas and diesel) accounted for 63.9 percent of the state’s new vehicle sales share in 2023, losing about 7.7 points from 2022 numbers. So far in 2024 the market share of ICE vehicles sold in the state declined to 58.3%, says the report.

In 2023, combined sales of BEVs, PHEVs, hybrids, and fuel cell vehicles in the state accounted for 35.9 percent of the market share (compared to 11.6 percent in 2018) and 39.4% this year.

Among all powertrains, Toyota remains California’s preferred brand, with 215,402 registrations YTD and 16.3 percent of the market share.

Other YTD market share brand leaders: Tesla (with 12.1 percent market share) and Honda (with 10.9 percent market share). Honda also posted a noteworthy 11.2 percent increase in registrations this year, with 143,391 registrations YTD.

E15 coming to California gas tanks?

The Renewable Fuels Association Oct. 25 applauded Gov. Gavin Newsom for directing the state’s Air Resources Board (CARB) to expedite the approval of E15, gasoline containing 15 percent ethanol. California is the only state in the country that doesn’t currently allow the sale of lower-cost, lower-carbon E15 but limits it to 10%.

In a letter to CARB Chair Liane Randolph Newsom wrote, “Given the potential for allowing E15 gasoline to increase fuel supply and reduce gasoline prices, with little to no environmental harm, it is prudent for CARB to prioritize resources that would allow for the expeditious completion of this process. Therefore, I am directing CARB to accelerate its action on this critical issue.”

E15 fuel, which contains 15% ethanol, has been widely adopted in other states and could significantly reduce prices without adding environmental harm, says RFA. As of 2023, E15 was sold at more than 3,000 stations in 31 states.

In a related news release, Newsom stated, “There’s massive potential for this to be a win-win for Californians: lowering gas prices by up to 20 cents per gallon while keeping our air clean. It builds on our efforts to keep gas prices low by holding Big Oil accountable and helping prevent price spikes at the pump.”

Newsom’s letter cited a recent study by economists at the University of California, Berkeley and United States Naval Academy that showed E15 could result in a $0.20 per gallon price decrease for the state’s drivers, saving California families up to $2.7 billion per year.

E15 is a fuel blend that contains 15% ethanol and is generally cheaper than regular gasoline, says the RFA.

Price: In April 2023, E15 was on average $0.27 per gallon cheaper than E10, or 7.4%. In summer 2023, E15 was on average 10–30 cents per gallon cheaper than regular gas, with some locations offering over $1 off per gallon.

Reasons for lower price: Ethanol is cheaper to produce than gasoline, and the domestic production of ethanol from corn helps stabilize fuel prices.

Benefits: E15 is a lower-carbon option and can help save money on fuel.

“We sincerely appreciate Gov. Newsom’s efforts to accelerate the approval of the cleaner, greener E15 fuel blend in California,” said RFA President and CEO Geoff Cooper. “Not only does E15 reduce greenhouse gas emissions and harmful tailpipe pollution, but it also delivers significant savings at the pump. Allowing the sale of E15 would provide economic relief to California families, while at the same time providing important environmental benefits.”

Newsom’s news release also highlights recent vehicle testing from the University of California, Riverside showing that “blending in gasoline would not affect NOx emissions and would reduce particulate emissions.”

Cross Valley Express bus service funded

Tulare County has received over $50 million for the Cross Valley Express project, which will offer a new bus service.

Tulare County has received $59,100,000 in funding for their Cross Valley Express: Kings-Tulare County Regional Bus and Capital Infrastructure plan. The funds come from the California State Transportation Agency.

Officials say the project will establish a new transit bus network connecting Visalia, Hanford and Lindsay, to the San Joaquin Hanford Amtrak station and the future Kings-Tulare High-Speed Rail station in Hanford.

Phase 1A launched July 1, and will provide connection from Visalia to Hanford with four round trips per day, including four round-trips on weekdays and two round trips on Saturdays. This phase will also provide a convenient connection to Amtrak San Joaquins trains (702 & 712).

Phase 1B is slated to be in service by January 2025 and will add service from Visalia to Hanford – enhancing the frequency and convenience of the route.

And lastly, a future Phase 1C will focus on implementing an Express Bus, providing service every half-hour, connecting Hanford to Lindsay and the High-Speed Rail connection.

For more information phone: (559) 852-2691

Planes get better mileage

Airbus reports that the French plane maker has been working on getting the aircraft certified for five years. It burns about 30% less fuel than older aircraft, the manufacturer said.